Commodity Trading Today Blog

Commodity Trading Today Blog provides news and articles on the world commodities markets.

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Nov 20, 2008, Crude Oil Below $50 A Barrel

Crude oil has fallen below $50 for the first time since May 2005. Persistent worries about a world recession and a fall in global oil consumption are the main drivers.

Earlier today NYMEX West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil futures fell to $49.76. While on ICE Futures Europe in London, Brent Crude dropped to $48.92 a barrel.

The US which consumes a quarter of world oil production has seen a significant fall in imports. From 10.1 million barrels a day in September 2007, one year on US oil imports are 8.4 million barrels a day, a fall of 16.5%.

To reinforce this fall in demand, the Energy Information Administration said US stocks of crude oil surged by 1.6 m barrels last week, twice the amount expected.

Compared to its high point in July 2008 of $147, the price of crude oil has now fallen by two thirds.

And significantly OPEC has a crucial meeting on 29 November in Cairo, when a decision will be made whether or not to cut output again. In October the oil cartel announced a cut of 1.5 millon barrels a day.

Nov 18, 2008, About Us at Commodity Trading Today, Contribute Your Articles

About us and our guest contributors and how you can contribute your articles to Commodity Trading Today

Nov 17, 2008, OPEC No To Crude Oil Output Cuts in Cairo

Crude oil prices fall again as OPEC suggests there are no plans for further production cuts at its 29 December meeting in Cairo.

With a weakening global economy taking its toll on demand for crude oil, many commentators had expected more production cuts from the major oil producers.

The oil cartel cut 1.5 million barrels a day from oil production in October but this move has not stopped the continual decline in the price of crude.

From a high in July of $147, crude oil has fallen by around 60%, and is now moving in a range between $50 and $60.

Earlier today Nymex West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude futures were trading at just under $56 a barrel, while Brent crude in London fell to $53.74.

While Iran, a major global oil producer, has called for cuts of up to 1.5 million barrels a day, Opec President Dr Chalib Khelil has poured cold water on the idea.

Nov 13, 2008, A Plan To Save The World?

Part two, or is it three?

When Paulson came out today and stated that his earlier plan to save the western world was not working, he offered up a plan "C" (or is it "D") to relieve pressure on consumer credit, scrapping his earlier effort to buy the value mortgage assets.

No matter what happens or what the next plan is, here are the 3 reasons I believe stocks are headed lower.

• Number one: The trend in most all stocks is down. This trend is likely to persist and last longer than most people imagine.
• Number two: There is no plan. The government is floundering and does not have a plan that is going to work anytime soon.
• Number three: We have a lame-duck president, and nothing is going to happen of any consequence until President-elect Obama is sworn in.

Now this may seem like a very pessimistic outlook and in some ways it is, however, there are always opportunities to make money in the marketplace.

These opportunities may not be in stocks, it may well be in forex or the commodity markets.

So buckle your seatbelt. I think we are in for a bumpy ride...check out the new video analysis New Video analysis of what could really happen. Enjoy!

William Davies

Nov 7, 2008, Where is the bottom in Crude Oil?

I'm sure as a trader you've heard the expression, the "trend is your friend."

That was never more true than today as crude oil (NYMEX_CL) crashed to new lows and the stock market resumed its downward trend.

Today we are focusing on crude oil and the reason why it fell to new lows.

We're also going to be looking at all of the "Trade Triangle" signals that we have received on crude oil since last July.

The video is about nine minutes long and I highly recommend you watch it, simply because it shows you just how powerful trends can be.

http://crudebottom.commoditycrunch.com

The video also shows you why price action is more important than fundamentals.

If you have a few minutes, please take the time to watch the video and learn how the markets really work.

Since Barack Obama was named President elect, we can see how the markets have reacted at least in the short-term. Maybe not a reflection of Obama's potential as a president, maybe a reality check for problems in the economy.

Not even the record cut in interest rates by the UK could help the markets today.

Enjoy the video and please let us know if you've found it to be helpful and useful in your own trading plan.

You can reach us online or you can call us directly at 1-800-538-7424 and someone from our support staff will be able to answer any questions you might have.

Every success in life and in trading!

Nov 3, 2008, Commodities Suffer Worst October In 50 Years

Following on from the global credit crisis, commodity prices have fallen heavily in October.

So much in fact that the falls recorded put last month into the category of worst for around 50 years.

Take the important base metal copper for example. Last Friday on the LME, 3 month copper fell just over $100 to $4,100 per metric ton, and the metal is down around 36% for the month.

The bellweather Reuters Jeffries CRB index headed down 23% in October and last month also saw a decline of around 33% in the price of crude oil.

This has come about despite OPEC announcing a cut of 1.5 million barrels a day in production. Just think that earlier this summer, crude oil was hitting $147 a barrel and now is around $60.

The US is a big energy consumer and with third quarter GDP figures declining by the largest annualised rate since 2001, this is bound to hit the energy commodities hard.

Demand for coal, crude oil and natural gas will be affected and this change will be reflected in the price for these commodities.

And in these difficult times the US dollar has started to show some resilience. As a result, gold has taken a hit.

Gold futures were down around 18% on the COMEX division of NYMEX in October.

We are indeed living in interesting times and agricultural commodities have also posted price declines.

Wheat futures fell the most in over 20 years last month, while soybeans and corn fell for the fourth consecutive month.

These price movements will certainly mean that policymakers are shifting their attention away from inflationary worries towards trying to avoid a deflationary slump.

Oct 29, 2008, Trading Crude Oil Short and Long Term

So where is crude oil going next? After the surge towards $150 earlier this year, it has now fallen to around $60 a barrel.

And following OPEC's recent decision to only cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day, it seems the price of crude will remain weak in the short term.

The deflationary forces in the global economy, following the financial crisis which spread from the US across the globe, means demand for oil will remain weak.

As we enter the global recession, companies are downgrading their sales, earnings and profit forecasts, and economic inactivity and unemployment will rise.

Against such a backdrop it is not surprising to see weakness in commodity prices in general and crude oil and gasoline prices in particular.

Recently the US dollar has strengthened, as investors dump other assets and currencies and seek the relative safety of the dollar.

But looking to the longer term we are likely to see a much stronger price for crude oil and will probably again see the $150 price level for this commodity.

Why is this? Just consider that we are still in a long term commodity bull market and recent events are merely a healthy pullback.

Mexican oil production has fallen away significantly in recent years and this country is a top exporter to the US.

Oil companies will not be able to justify further exploration programmes while prices remain this low. When the global economy recovers, the lower supply will not be able to meet the increased demand.

Have a look at this interesting video made by Adam Hewison, showing the excellent trading results for 2008 Q3 using INO's "trade trianlgle" technology. Enjoy!

Oct 17, 2008, Game Changer In Precious Metals

There's no doubt about it, these are volatile times and that is reflected in the broad swings in all of the markets.

One market that had a huge move today (10/16) may have produced a game changer that you can make money on.

http://gamechanger.commoditycrunch.com

I'm referring to a major commodity that has not acted like it would normally act in an economic crisis.

In this short video, you will see exactly how we have positioned ourselves and what we expect will be the course of this market in the short term.

The new video, which requires no additional download, also includes a well know stock that tracks the above market very well. You will see first hand where this market is expected to go.

The video is available now, and I believe it will help improve your trading in these volatile times.

Every Success!

William Davies

Oct 14, 2008, Fear and Trading Commodity Markets

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

Thus spoke Franklin D. Roosevelt 75 years ago.

Looking back on Roosevelt's speech in 1933, 4 years after the infamous crash of '29, he was referring to the economic conditions of the time, better known as The Great Depression.

The question is... how different are things this time?

http://fear.commoditycrunch.com

People are still in fear about what the future holds, having very little confidence in the economy.

The major difference between the market falls of 2008 and the 1929 crash is that we now have India and China on the global stage.

Back in 1929, both these countries where not on the radar.

Both India and China's economies will suffer with the turn down here in the US.

These countries will now have to build their own domestic consumption patterns for goods and services they have exported to the US.

This will be difficult for them to achieve, as so much of their economy is built on exports, which are evaporating quickly.

Make no mistake, the markets are extraordinarily turbulent right now.

We do not expect, even with the worldwide bailout, for the situation to be rosy again in the short term.

That of course does not rule out some exciting trading opportunities in the commodity markets.

This is a time for rational thinking, and to get rid of that dark cloud of fear from your trading activity.

Fear has no place in anyone's trading plan if they trade with a diversified proven program, shown to be successful over time.

And by this I mean not just the last six months, or six years, but over as long as 30 years.

With a program that puts the odds in your favour, you can trade with confidence knowing that while you may lose the odd skirmish, overall you'll make money based on your own trading decisions.

Many of you know about trading using MarketClub's "Trade Triangle" technology. This approach has proven successful in all types of markets, including the one's we all face now.

Take a look at this short 12 minute video showing you how Market Club has done in three different commodity markets using trade triangles.

For some of you, this video will be an eye-opening experience, while for others you are already fearless MarketClub members.

There will also be some of you that are successful traders using your own system, and there is probably no need to watch this video.

Trading should be an unemotional experience. It is best not to trade for the excitement, because the chances are you're going to lose.

It is possible to trade successfully in any market out there. This short video shows you how INO's unemotional, time tested approach to commodity futures markets will put the odds in your favor.

This way you are much more likely to be on the right side of these extraordinary trading times.

Oct 10, 2008, Commodity Trading Training, Learning To Trade Commodities

A commodity trading training resource showing the basics, chart techniques and trading systems to trade commodities for profits

Oct 9, 2008, Is gold ready to skyrocket?

With the IMF calling this the most dangerous time for the global economy since the 1930's, it seems gold is primed to surge beyond $1,000.

Here is a short note from Adam Hewison, President of INO.com. Enjoy the video presentation.

I have just finished a new video on gold that I would like you to see. This new video deals with some of the strange events that we've been going through the past two or three weeks, or in some cases several months.

http://goldrocket.commoditycrunch.com

I know most of the gold bugs have been disappointed that their favorite yellow metal hasn't skyrocketed to new highs.

Some people said that we'd hit two to three thousand dollars an ounce when gold topped the one thousand mark a few months ago.

I'm not sure that we will see levels like that, but the reality is, we could be seeing more interest come into this market which could push it higher.

In this short five minute video, you will get to see how well our "Trade Triangle" technology has done in the gold market.

I will also show you when I think gold should hit its peak.

This is an educational video that is meant to inform you on the dynamics of the gold market and how it can help you improve your trading and timing in the future.

Best of luck in life and trading,

Adam Hewison President, INO.com Co-creator, MarketClub

Oct 8, 2008, Fibonacci In Commodity Trading, Using Fibonacci Numbers

How Fibonacci in commodity trading helps determine price movements, looks at fibonbacci numbers and fibonacci retracement

Oct 4, 2008, Relative Strength Index, Commodity Trading Technique

The relative strength index as a trading technique, in commodity trading the RSI helps indicate overbought and oversold levels

Oct 2, 2008, Leveraging in Commodity Trading, Big Profit and Loss Potential

With leveraging in commodity trading there is potential for big profits and losses; go long or short and watch the initial margins for futures contracts

Oct 2, 2008, Hedging in Commodity Trading, Hedge Your Position For Protection

Hedging in commodity trading protects producers and end users, either using a short hedge or a long hedge

Sep 30, 2008, Commodity Trading Technical Analysis, Charts and Price Action

How commodity trading technical analysis can help the trading decisions in commodity futures, including price action, trends, moving averages and volume considerations

Sep 23, 2008, Where is gold going over the next 6 months?

It seems to me that the only help the US government gave us last week was pushing gold prices higher.

Last week's massive bailout and intervention in the credit markets saw gold as one of the few markets to close higher for the week.

We can see from this how traders are thinking about the future. It seems there is confusion and uncertainty , and so the yellow metal is favourite once more.

These are extraordinary times we are living in, and we have to take advantage of what the markets are offering us at the moment.

The fact that there was no follow-through today in the equity markets tells me that there's so many questions about this rescue plan that are yet to be answered.

In turn this now creates more uneasiness in the marketplace.

We have even seen a slight upward movement in crude oil and other commodities.

As for stocks I believe they are in a bear market and that we can see a trade down to the 10,000 level basis the DOW.

So are we looking for a significant change in trend in gold?

With the technicals all in place, and the fundamentals certainly pointing to higher gold prices, I think traders should be looking at this market from the long side.

Some of our cyclic work indicates that gold could be strong until February or March of 2009.

Take a look at this interesting video. Enjoy!

Sep 22, 2008, ICE Raw Sugar Futures, World Sugar Benchmark

Looks at ICE raw sugar futures contracts, world benchmark sugar #11 and #16 futures, and opportunities for soft commodity trading

Sep 19, 2008, Euronext Liffe Raw Sugar Futures

Looks at Raw Sugar Futures traded on NYSE Euronext Liffe, using LIFFE CONNECT trading platform for commodities

Sep 18, 2008, Commodity Futures Margin, Initial Margin and Margin Call

Looks at commodity futures margin requirements on commodity exchanges, what is initial margin, margin call and maintenance margin level

Sep 17, 2008, New SEC Rule Stops Naked Short Selling

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acted decisively to protect investors against "naked" short selling.

This is a practice where sellers decide to go short a stock but don't actually borrow the stock first.

The move by the SEC will impact the securities of all publicly traded companies.

Sep 17, 2008, Commodity Futures Orders, Market Order, Limit Order

Reviews of Commodity futures orders, describing uses of the market order, limit order and stop loss order in commodity future trading

Sep 12, 2008, Robusta Coffee Futures, Trading Global Coffee Markets

Review of Robusta coffee futures trading, details for Robusta coffee contracts on Liffe London using LIFFE CONNECT and the ICE Futures US contract

Sep 12, 2008, Wasn't gold supposed to hit $2,000 an ounce?

Here is a timely message from Adam Hewison, President of INO.com

To many it is quite surprising that gold is getting closer to 700 an ounce rather than the 2,000 many were calling for.

When gold was trading at the 1,000 level many people were expecting this market to zoom to 2,000 an ounce.

When we first suggested that gold had actually given us a sell signal we received numerous e-mails, many of which were not flattering and some were just downright ugly.

"How could you short gold are you an imbecile" and that was one of the nicer emails.

Emails aside, to trade successfully in any market you must listen to the market. This is the one true voice that tells you what is going on.

During my career in the commodity markets, I have heard many stories, some of which were fabricated and some of which are true, but either have little or no bearing on the market itself.

The very best indicator of all is to follow the price action which tells you when the insid ers are selling or buying.

In the commodity markets you have insiders who actually produce a commodity or the actual end-user of that commodity.

Everything else is speculation. These insiders have extensive networks of global information that they plug-in to their hedging models.

They also have extensive experiences and know what it's like to be in the trading trenches of any market.

Take a few minutes and look at the short video I just produced to show you exactly what I mean, and how the patterns are different this time in gold and why it may have still further to fall.

Sep 11, 2008, OPEC To Cut Oil Output In 40 Days

President of OPEC, Chakib Khelil, has said that members must take measures to reduce over-production of crude oil, and to stay within agreed quotas.

Speaking in Vienna following OPEC talks Dr Khelil said that output would be maintained within the levels agreed in September 2007, which is 28.8 million barrels a day but not including Iraq and Indonesia.

This effectively amounts to a daily reduction of 520,000 barrels, and must be achieved within 40 days.

OPEC says the recent fall in crude oil prices can be attributed to a strengthening dollar, weaker econmomic growth, higher supply and a fall away in geopolitical tension.

In London Brent Crude was down 2.3% at $98.24, falling through the significant $100 level, while on NYMEX West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude futures fell to $101.89.

So is this a sign that the psychologically important $100 floor will be permanently broken, or is it just a short term correcion, before continuing the strong bull phase?

Remember that oil prices reached a record of $147 a barrel in July, and the markets have since seen a 30% fall.

What are the prospects for making profitable trades in crude oil going forward? Which way is the market headed?

Take a look at this video on trading crude oil using the Triangle method.

Sep 11, 2008, Arabica Coffee Futures, Trading On ICE Futures US

Trade Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US, looks at coffee "C" futures terms including basis of, premiums and discounts on, deliverable quality

Sep 9, 2008, Coffee Commodity Trading, Arabica Coffee Benchmark

Introduces coffee commodity trading, looks at arabica coffee and robusta variety, coffee futures, planting, processing and world production data

Sep 5, 2008, Soybean Commodity Trading, Get Soybean Production Data

Look at soybean commodity trading, soybean futures and world and US soybean production forecasts and stock levels

Sep 3, 2008, Wheat Commodity Trading, Ride The Grain Wave

Look at wheat commodity trading, including wheat planting projections, CBOT wheat futures and Kansas and Minneapolis Exchanges

Sep 2, 2008, Corn Commodity Trading, Prospective Plantings Report

Looks at corn commodity trading analysis such as prospective plantings report, CBOT corn futures and grain stocks data

Sep 1, 2008, Rice Commodity Trading, Exposure To Global Rice Prices

Background to rice commodity trading, looking at global rice prices, production, rough rice futures, exporters and planting conditions

Aug 28, 2008, Sugar Commodity Trading, Watch Sugar Prices Move

Review of sugar commodity trading, sugarcane production and markets, raw sugar futures and the coming challenge of ethanol demand for alternative fuels

Aug 26, 2008, Commodity Trading In Nickel, Strong Base Metals Demand

Look at commodity trading in nickel, world mine production, refined nickel consumption and LME nickel futures opportunities

Aug 26, 2008, Commodity Trading In Zinc, Ride The BRIC Economies Wave

Reviewing Commodity trading In zinc, world and BRIC economies zinc mining and slab production, consumption, and zinc futures trading opportunities

Aug 21, 2008, Commodity Trading In Lead, BRIC Demand Powers Growth

Review of Commodity Trading in Lead using LME lead futures, mining and refined production data, consumption from BRIC economies continues to be strong